Norton city, VA housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 12% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are down 5.5% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
• Supply. Listings are 50% below the 2017-19 norm and rising (+9% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is moderate (55/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 2.4% below their final list price; 12% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 24% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $33k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,445 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $82 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. No clear direction: likely −8% to +9% over the next 12 months (63% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

No clear direction

A rise is somewhat more likely than a fall, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −7.5% to +8.8% (80% range; middle estimate +1.9%), chance of a rise 63%, of a 5%+ drop 16%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.