Harlan County, KY housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are roughly in line with local incomes (+3% vs. this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm).
• Prices. Home values are down 9.0% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
• Supply. Listings are 37% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−5% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is high (97/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 5.8% below their final list price; 24% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 16% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $22k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,261 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $352 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding. Flood isn't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. No clear direction: likely −7% to +9% over the next 12 months (66% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

No clear direction

A rise is somewhat more likely than a fall, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −7.1% to +9.3% (80% range; middle estimate +2.4%), chance of a rise 66%, of a 5%+ drop 14%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

ZIP codes in Harlan County, KY