Nogales, AZ metro housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 47% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are flat over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
• Supply. There are 7% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm and rising (+11% vs. a year ago), so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is high (92/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 3.8% below their final list price; 21% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 36% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $67k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,235 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $172/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $272 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding. Flood isn't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. No clear direction: likely −7% to +8% over the next 12 months (64% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

No clear direction

A rise is somewhat more likely than a fall, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −7.0% to +7.9% (80% range; middle estimate +1.8%), chance of a rise 64%, of a 5%+ drop 14%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

Counties in Nogales, AZ metro