Idaho housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 53% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are up 2.0% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), but still 5% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. Listings are 1% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−5% vs. a year ago), close to pre-pandemic levels.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is moderate (46/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 1.1% below their final list price; 24% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 43% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $110k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,248 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $139 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −1% to +12% over the next 12 months (87% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −1.4% to +12.2% (80% range; middle estimate +7.0%), chance of a rise 87%, of a 5%+ drop 4%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

Counties in Idaho

Metros in Idaho