Waterford, VA 20197 housing market
Data through Aug 2026 · Balanced market · leverage 71
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Home Value
$1.3M
+4.5% vs. a year ago
Buyer Leverage Score
71
Sep 2026
Months of Supply
4.4 months
Aug 2026
Days on Market
89 days
Sep 2026
Price Cut %
40%
Sep 2026
Sale-to-List Ratio
97.7%
Aug 2026
Mtg Payment as % of Income
49%
Aug 2026
Overvalued %
50%
Aug 2026
Expected Disaster Loss
$76
Dec 2025
What this means
- Valuation. Prices are 50% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
- Prices. Home values are up 4.5% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
- Supply. Listings are 39% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−6% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
- Negotiating. Buyer leverage is high (71/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 2.3% below their final list price; 40% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
- Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 49% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $314k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,696 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
- Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $76 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
- Outlook. Leaning up: likely −4% to +12% over the next 12 months (78% chance of a rise).
Next 12 months
Leaning up
Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −4.4% to +11.9% (80% range; middle estimate +4.8%), chance of a rise 78%, of a 5%+ drop 8%.
HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.
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Other ZIP codes in Loudoun County, VA
| Area | Home value | 1-year change | Buyer leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashburn, VA 20147 | $747.4K | +0.5% | 25 |
| Ashburn, VA 20148 | $873.6K | +0.1% | 23 |
| Leesburg, VA 20176 | $830K | +2.3% | 13 |
| Sterling, VA 20164 | $586.4K | +1.8% | 31 |
| Aldie, VA 20105 | $1.1M | +4.3% | 22 |
| Chantilly, VA 20152 | $838.1K | +1.0% | 27 |
| Leesburg, VA 20175 | $831.6K | +2.8% | 25 |
| Sterling, VA 20165 | $735.7K | +1.4% | 24 |
| Purcellville, VA 20132 | $894.2K | +3.3% | 30 |
| Sterling, VA 20166 | $618K | −1.3% | 33 |
| Round Hill, VA 20141 | $862.2K | +3.0% | 14 |
| Lovettsville, VA 20180 | $794.5K | +4.1% | 30 |
| Hamilton, VA 20158 | $978.5K | +5.3% | 33 |
| Middleburg, VA 20117 | $1.2M | +5.5% | 37 |
| Upperville, VA 20184 | $1.2M | +6.7% | 62 |
| Paeonian Springs, VA 20129 | $1.3M | +5.1% | 8 |