Dumfries, VA 22025 housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 28% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are up 1.0% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
• Supply. Listings are 46% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−29% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (12/100; U.S.: 54): homes typically sell at or above asking (100.1% of list); 28% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 28% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $142k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,576 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $812/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $94 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −5% to +11% over the next 12 months (76% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −4.9% to +11.4% (80% range; middle estimate +4.4%), chance of a rise 76%, of a 5%+ drop 9%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

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