Keystone Heights, FL 32656 housing market
Data through Aug 2026 · Buyer's market · leverage 90
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Home Value
$286,328
+3.2% vs. a year ago
Buyer Leverage Score
90
Sep 2026
Months of Supply
6.8 months
Aug 2026
Days on Market
71 days
Sep 2026
Price Cut %
24%
Sep 2026
Sale-to-List Ratio
95.8%
Aug 2026
Mtg Payment as % of Income
29%
Aug 2026
Overvalued %
40%
Aug 2026
Expected Disaster Loss
$153
Dec 2025
What this means
- Valuation. Prices are 40% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
- Prices. Home values are up 3.2% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
- Supply. There are 3% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm, so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
- Negotiating. Buyer leverage is high (90/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 4.2% below their final list price; 24% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
- Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 29% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $71k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $2,020 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
- Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $153 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
- Outlook. No clear direction: likely −7% to +9% over the next 12 months (63% chance of a rise).
Next 12 months
No clear direction
A rise is somewhat more likely than a fall, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −7.3% to +9.0% (80% range; middle estimate +1.9%), chance of a rise 63%, of a 5%+ drop 15%.
HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.
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Other ZIP codes in Clay County, FL
| Area | Home value | 1-year change | Buyer leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middleburg, FL 32068 | $327.6K | −0.7% | 80 |
| Orange Park, FL 32073 | $299.2K | −0.6% | 66 |
| Orange Park, FL 32065 | $326K | −1.1% | 57 |
| Green Cove Springs, FL 32043 | $344.7K | −0.7% | 82 |
| Fleming Island, FL 32003 | $444.3K | −0.2% | 37 |
| ZIP 32079 | – | – | 16 |