East Saint Louis, IL 62204 housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 50% below this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm, cheaper relative to incomes than before the pandemic.
• Prices. Home values are down 3.2% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), 26% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. There are 380% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm and rising (+243% vs. a year ago), so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is high (99/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 14.1% below their final list price; 7% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 14% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $16k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,640 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $320 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding. Flood isn't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. No clear direction: likely −10% to +6% over the next 12 months (41% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

No clear direction

A fall is somewhat more likely than a rise, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −10.5% to +5.8% (80% range; middle estimate −1.2%), chance of a rise 41%, of a 5%+ drop 27%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

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