Hillsboro, TX 76645 housing market
Data through Aug 2026 · Buyer's market · leverage 95
Open on the mapMarket report (PDF)Compare
Home Value
$211,904
−1.6% vs. a year ago
Buyer Leverage Score
95
Sep 2026
Months of Supply
7.8 months
Aug 2026
Days on Market
70 days
Sep 2026
Price Cut %
25%
Sep 2026
Sale-to-List Ratio
96.6%
Aug 2026
Mtg Payment as % of Income
28%
Aug 2026
Overvalued %
29%
Aug 2026
Expected Disaster Loss
$91
Dec 2025
What this means
- Valuation. Prices are 29% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
- Prices. Home values are down 1.6% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
- Supply. There are 183% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm and rising (+35% vs. a year ago), so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
- Negotiating. Buyer leverage is high (95/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 3.4% below their final list price; 25% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
- Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 28% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $60k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $2,262 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
- Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $91 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
- Outlook. No clear direction: likely −8% to +8% over the next 12 months (58% chance of a rise).
Next 12 months
No clear direction
A rise is somewhat more likely than a fall, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −8.2% to +8.1% (80% range; middle estimate +1.1%), chance of a rise 58%, of a 5%+ drop 18%.
HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.
Follow Hillsboro, TX 76645
One email a month: what changed in prices, supply and the outlook. Unsubscribe any time.
Other ZIP codes in Hill County, TX
| Area | Home value | 1-year change | Buyer leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Whitney, TX 76692 | $227.6K | +0.3% | 84 |
| Itasca, TX 76055 | $215.7K | +0.2% | 96 |
| Hubbard, TX 76648 | $216.8K | +1.6% | 65 |
| Covington, TX 76636 | $346.8K | −2.7% | 84 |
| Blum, TX 76627 | $323.5K | +8.3% | 100 |
| Aquilla, TX 76622 | $334.1K | +2.9% | 66 |
| Mount Calm, TX 76673 | $276K | +1.8% | 84 |
| Abbott, TX 76621 | $309K | −2.0% | 100 |
| Malone, TX 76660 | $212.9K | +2.7% | 31 |
| Bynum, TX 76631 | $282.1K | +4.2% | 64 |
| Penelope, TX 76676 | $224.3K | −3.5% | 16 |
| Mertens, TX 76666 | $217.2K | +2.3% | 86 |
| ZIP 76650 | – | – | 8 |
| ZIP 76628 | – | – | 54 |