Fayetteville, TX 78940 housing market
Data through Aug 2026 · Buyer's market · leverage 86
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Home Value
$580,376
−2.1% vs. a year ago
Buyer Leverage Score
86
Sep 2026
Months of Supply
22.4 months
Aug 2026
Days on Market
122 days
Sep 2026
Price Cut %
0.0%
Sep 2026
Sale-to-List Ratio
93.5%
Aug 2026
Mtg Payment as % of Income
48%
Aug 2026
Overvalued %
5.6%
Aug 2026
Expected Disaster Loss
$98
Dec 2025
What this means
- Valuation. Prices are roughly in line with local incomes (+6% vs. this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm).
- Prices. Home values are down 2.1% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), 6% below their 2022-23 peak.
- Supply. Listings are 11% below the 2017-19 norm and rising (+57% vs. a year ago), still somewhat tight.
- Negotiating. Buyer leverage is high (86/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 6.5% below their final list price; 0% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
- Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 48% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $142k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,965 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
- Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $98 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
- Outlook. No clear direction: likely −9% to +7% over the next 12 months (49% chance of a rise).
Next 12 months
No clear direction
A fall is somewhat more likely than a rise, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −9.4% to +6.9% (80% range; middle estimate −0.1%), chance of a rise 49%, of a 5%+ drop 22%.
HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.
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Other ZIP codes in Fayette County, TX
| Area | Home value | 1-year change | Buyer leverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| La Grange, TX 78945 | $375.7K | −4.7% | 96 |
| Schulenburg, TX 78956 | $372K | −1.4% | 99 |
| Flatonia, TX 78941 | $442.8K | +1.2% | 100 |
| Round Top, TX 78954 | $1.2M | −4.4% | 15 |
| Muldoon, TX 78949 | – | – | 57 |
| West Point, TX 78963 | – | – | 57 |
| Ellinger, TX 78938 | – | – | 24 |