Capitan, NM 88316 housing market

What this means

• Prices. Home values are up 5.5% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
• Supply. Listings are 61% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−27% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is moderate (62/100; U.S.: 54): homes typically sell at or above asking (100.0% of list) (as of Apr 2026); 18% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 34% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $61k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,357 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $490 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding. Flood isn't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. No clear direction: likely −8% to +9% over the next 12 months (62% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

No clear direction

A rise is somewhat more likely than a fall, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −7.6% to +8.7% (80% range; middle estimate +1.6%), chance of a rise 62%, of a 5%+ drop 16%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

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