Tollhouse, CA 93667 housing market
Data through Aug 2026 · Balanced market · leverage 38
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Home Value
$430,150
+0.1% vs. a year ago
Buyer Leverage Score
38
Sep 2026
Months of Supply
1.6 months
Aug 2026
Days on Market
86 days
Sep 2026
Price Cut %
33%
Sep 2026
Sale-to-List Ratio
100.9%
Aug 2026
Mtg Payment as % of Income
40%
Aug 2026
Overvalued %
38%
Aug 2026
Expected Disaster Loss
$404
Dec 2025
What this means
- Valuation. Prices are 38% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
- Prices. Home values are flat over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), but still 5% below their 2022-23 peak.
- Supply. Listings are 25% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−14% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
- Negotiating. Buyer leverage is moderate (38/100; U.S.: 54): homes typically sell at or above asking (100.9% of list); 33% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
- Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 40% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $101k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,470 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
- Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $404 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from wildfire. Check insurance costs before buying.
- Outlook. Leaning up: likely −6% to +10% over the next 12 months (71% chance of a rise).
Next 12 months
Leaning up
Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −6.0% to +10.3% (80% range; middle estimate +3.3%), chance of a rise 71%, of a 5%+ drop 12%.
HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.
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