Fresno, CA 93723 housing market
Data through Aug 2026 · Balanced market · leverage 45
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Home Value
$507,638
−0.8% vs. a year ago
Buyer Leverage Score
45
Sep 2026
Months of Supply
4.0 months
Aug 2026
Days on Market
58 days
Sep 2026
Price Cut %
14%
Sep 2026
Sale-to-List Ratio
98.4%
Aug 2026
Mtg Payment as % of Income
29%
Aug 2026
Overvalued %
-2.4%
Aug 2026
Expected Disaster Loss
$167
Dec 2025
What this means
- Valuation. Prices are roughly in line with local incomes (−2% vs. this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm).
- Prices. Home values are down 0.8% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), 4% below their 2022-23 peak.
- Supply. There are 8% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm and rising (+30% vs. a year ago), so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
- Negotiating. Buyer leverage is moderate (45/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 1.6% below their final list price; 14% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
- Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 29% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $124k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,435 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
- Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $167 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
- Outlook. No clear direction: likely −9% to +7% over the next 12 months (49% chance of a rise).
Next 12 months
No clear direction
A fall is somewhat more likely than a rise, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −9.3% to +7.0% (80% range; middle estimate −0.1%), chance of a rise 49%, of a 5%+ drop 22%.
HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.
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