Castro Valley, CA 94546 housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 14% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are up 1.0% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), but still 8% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. Listings are 7% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−18% vs. a year ago), close to pre-pandemic levels.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (19/100; U.S.: 54): homes typically sell at or above asking (104.3% of list); 24% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 55% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $237k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,640 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $3,127/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $291 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from earthquakes. Earthquakes aren't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −5% to +11% over the next 12 months (74% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −5.3% to +11.0% (80% range; middle estimate +4.0%), chance of a rise 74%, of a 5%+ drop 10%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

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