Rough and Ready, CA 95975 housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 21% below this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm, cheaper relative to incomes than before the pandemic.
• Prices. Home values are down 1.0% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), 15% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. Listings are 40% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−55% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (7/100; U.S.: 54): homes typically sell at or above asking (104.2% of list); 0% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 38% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $131k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $3,784 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $321 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding. Flood isn't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −5% to +11% over the next 12 months (76% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −5.0% to +11.3% (80% range; middle estimate +4.3%), chance of a rise 76%, of a 5%+ drop 9%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

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