Orcas, WA 98280 housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 21% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are up 7.1% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), but still 7% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. There are 41% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm and rising (+60% vs. a year ago), so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is moderate (45/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 5.8% below their final list price (as of May 2026); 0% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 123% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $328k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,514 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $121 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −5% to +11% over the next 12 months (75% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −5.1% to +11.2% (80% range; middle estimate +4.1%), chance of a rise 75%, of a 5%+ drop 10%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

Other ZIP codes in San Juan County, WA