Gilroy, CA housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 19% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are up 0.6% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), but still 3% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. Listings are 13% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−19% vs. a year ago), still somewhat tight.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (18/100; U.S.: 54): homes typically sell at or above asking (100.5% of list); 12% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 57% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $252k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $2,036 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $3,268/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $408 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from earthquakes. Earthquakes aren't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −7% to +10% over the next 12 months (68% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −6.6% to +9.7% (80% range; middle estimate +2.7%), chance of a rise 68%, of a 5%+ drop 13%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.