San Juan Bautista, CA housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 10% below this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm, cheaper relative to incomes than before the pandemic.
• Prices. Home values are flat over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), 7% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. Listings are 5% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−8% vs. a year ago), close to pre-pandemic levels.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is moderate (47/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 1.0% below their final list price; 29% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 56% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $215k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,514 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $469 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from earthquakes. Earthquakes aren't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −6% to +10% over the next 12 months (71% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −6.0% to +10.3% (80% range; middle estimate +3.3%), chance of a rise 71%, of a 5%+ drop 12%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.