Duval County, TX housing market

What this means

• Prices. Home values are down 9.7% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), 35% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. There are 10% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm and rising (+73% vs. a year ago), so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is high (92/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 17.6% below their final list price; 9% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 17% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $28k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,523 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $127 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. No clear direction: likely −10% to +7% over the next 12 months (48% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

No clear direction

A fall is somewhat more likely than a rise, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −9.7% to +6.7% (80% range; middle estimate −0.2%), chance of a rise 48%, of a 5%+ drop 23%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

ZIP codes in Duval County, TX