Thornton, NH 03285 housing market
Data through Aug 2026 · Buyer's market · leverage 93
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Home Value
$434,016
+4.6% vs. a year ago
Buyer Leverage Score
93
Sep 2026
Months of Supply
10.0 months
Aug 2026
Days on Market
80 days
Sep 2026
Price Cut %
20%
Sep 2026
Sale-to-List Ratio
95.2%
Aug 2026
Mtg Payment as % of Income
38%
Aug 2026
Overvalued %
70%
Aug 2026
Expected Disaster Loss
$273
Dec 2025
What this means
- Valuation. Prices are 70% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
- Prices. Home values are up 4.6% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
- Supply. Listings are 2% below the 2017-19 norm and rising (+39% vs. a year ago), close to pre-pandemic levels.
- Negotiating. Buyer leverage is high (93/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 4.8% below their final list price; 20% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
- Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 38% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $114k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,261 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
- Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $273 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding. Flood isn't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
- Outlook. Leaning up: likely −6% to +10% over the next 12 months (72% chance of a rise).
Next 12 months
Leaning up
Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −5.8% to +10.5% (80% range; middle estimate +3.4%), chance of a rise 72%, of a 5%+ drop 11%.
HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.
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