Mertzon, TX 76941 housing market

What this means

• Prices. Home values are down 7.9% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), 8% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. Listings are 33% below the 2017-19 norm and rising (+50% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (29/100; U.S.: 54): homes typically sell at or above asking (100.6% of list) (as of Jan 2026); 0% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 26% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $68k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $2,149 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $201 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from wildfire.
• Outlook. No clear direction: likely −10% to +6% over the next 12 months (44% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

No clear direction

A fall is somewhat more likely than a rise, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −10.1% to +6.3% (80% range; middle estimate −0.8%), chance of a rise 44%, of a 5%+ drop 25%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

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