El Cajon, CA 92019 housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 51% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are up 1.3% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
• Supply. Listings are 23% below the 2017-19 norm and rising (+13% vs. a year ago), still somewhat tight.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (31/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 0.3% below their final list price; 27% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 60% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $205k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,648 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $2,374/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $239 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding. Flood isn't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −6% to +10% over the next 12 months (70% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −6.2% to +10.1% (80% range; middle estimate +3.1%), chance of a rise 70%, of a 5%+ drop 12%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

Other ZIP codes in San Diego County, CA