Modesto, CA 95351 housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 54% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are flat over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
• Supply. Listings are 37% below the 2017-19 norm: still a tight market.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (9/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 1.3% below their final list price; 12% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 46% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $88k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,336 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $490/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $248 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding. Flood isn't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −5% to +11% over the next 12 months (75% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −5.2% to +11.1% (80% range; middle estimate +4.1%), chance of a rise 75%, of a 5%+ drop 10%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

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