Houston, TX 77002 housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 21% below this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm, cheaper relative to incomes than before the pandemic.
• Prices. Home values are down 3.6% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), 16% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. There are 35% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm and rising (+40% vs. a year ago), so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is high (97/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 4.5% below their final list price; 24% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 25% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $72k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $3,310 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Owning and renting a typical home cost about the same per month.
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $129 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. No clear direction: likely −10% to +6% over the next 12 months (42% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

No clear direction

A fall is somewhat more likely than a rise, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −10.3% to +6.0% (80% range; middle estimate −1.0%), chance of a rise 42%, of a 5%+ drop 26%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

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