Houston, TX 77099 housing market
Data through Aug 2026 · Buyer's market · leverage 84
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Home Value
$217,100
−0.6% vs. a year ago
Buyer Leverage Score
84
Sep 2026
Months of Supply
9.5 months
Aug 2026
Days on Market
59 days
Sep 2026
Price Cut %
15%
Sep 2026
Sale-to-List Ratio
96.3%
Aug 2026
Mtg Payment as % of Income
37%
Aug 2026
Rental Rate
$1,096/mo
Aug 2026
Overvalued %
52%
Aug 2026
Expected Disaster Loss
$302
Dec 2025
What this means
- Valuation. Prices are 52% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
- Prices. Home values are down 0.6% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%).
- Supply. There are 175% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm and rising (+16% vs. a year ago), so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
- Negotiating. Buyer leverage is high (84/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 3.7% below their final list price; 15% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
- Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 37% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $62k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $2,314 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
- Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $445/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
- Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $302 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding. Flood isn't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
- Outlook. No clear direction: likely −9% to +7% over the next 12 months (53% chance of a rise).
Next 12 months
No clear direction
A rise is somewhat more likely than a fall, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −8.9% to +7.4% (80% range; middle estimate +0.4%), chance of a rise 53%, of a 5%+ drop 20%.
HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.
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