Cotulla, TX 78014 housing market

What this means

• Prices. Home values are down 11.6% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), 31% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. There are 200% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm and rising (+83% vs. a year ago), so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is high (95/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 12.5% below their final list price; 0% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 16% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $34k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,514 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $103 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. No clear direction: likely −11% to +6% over the next 12 months (40% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

No clear direction

A fall is somewhat more likely than a rise, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −10.5% to +5.8% (80% range; middle estimate −1.3%), chance of a rise 40%, of a 5%+ drop 27%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

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