Capitola, CA 95010 housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 13% above what local incomes have historically supported (this area's pre-2020 price-to-income ratio).
• Prices. Home values are up 6.8% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), but still 4% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. There are 72% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm and rising (+25% vs. a year ago), so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is moderate (60/100; U.S.: 54): homes typically sell at or above asking (100.4% of list); 44% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 83% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $290k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,696 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $3,919/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $339 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from earthquakes. Earthquakes aren't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −4% to +12% over the next 12 months (79% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −4.2% to +12.1% (80% range; middle estimate +5.1%), chance of a rise 79%, of a 5%+ drop 8%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

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