Shelby Gap, KY 41563 housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 29% below this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm, cheaper relative to incomes than before the pandemic.
• Prices. Home values are down 6.2% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), 23% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. Listings are 100% below the 2017-19 norm: still a tight market.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is moderate (60/100; U.S.: 54) (as of Sep 2025): homes sell for about 4.9% below their final list price (as of Nov 2025); 0% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%) (as of Aug 2025).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 17% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $26k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,387 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $440 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding. Flood isn't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. No clear direction: likely −9% to +8% over the next 12 months (54% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

No clear direction

A rise is somewhat more likely than a fall, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −8.8% to +7.6% (80% range; middle estimate +0.5%), chance of a rise 54%, of a 5%+ drop 20%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

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