Sonora, TX 76950 housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 28% below this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm, cheaper relative to incomes than before the pandemic.
• Prices. Home values are down 4.4% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), 26% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. Listings are 53% below the 2017-19 norm and falling (−54% vs. a year ago): still a tight market.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is high (79/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 7.0% below their final list price (as of May 2026); 24% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 17% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $44k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $2,086 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $140 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from flooding.
• Outlook. No clear direction: likely −9% to +8% over the next 12 months (54% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

No clear direction

A rise is somewhat more likely than a fall, but not by enough to call. Likely change: −8.8% to +7.5% (80% range; middle estimate +0.5%), chance of a rise 54%, of a 5%+ drop 20%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.