San Francisco, CA 94104 housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 21% below this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm, cheaper relative to incomes than before the pandemic.
• Prices. Home values are up 2.8% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), but still 17% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. Listings are 14% below the 2017-19 norm and rising (+50% vs. a year ago), still somewhat tight.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is moderate (47/100; U.S.: 54): homes sell for about 4.6% below their final list price; 0% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 155% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $265k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,514 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $400 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from earthquakes. Earthquakes aren't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −2% to +14% over the next 12 months (84% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −2.5% to +13.8% (80% range; middle estimate +6.8%), chance of a rise 84%, of a 5%+ drop 5%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

Other ZIP codes in San Francisco County, CA