San Francisco, CA 94121 housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are 7% below this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm, cheaper relative to incomes than before the pandemic.
• Prices. Home values are up 17.6% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), but still 3% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. Listings are 19% below the 2017-19 norm and rising (+47% vs. a year ago), still somewhat tight.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (2/100; U.S.: 54): homes typically sell at or above asking (121.5% of list); 0% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 95% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $424k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $2,523 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $6,430/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $255 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from earthquakes. Earthquakes aren't covered by standard homeowners insurance.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −2% to +15% over the next 12 months (87% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −1.6% to +14.7% (80% range; middle estimate +7.7%), chance of a rise 87%, of a 5%+ drop 4%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

Other ZIP codes in San Francisco County, CA