San Francisco, CA 94124 housing market

What this means

• Valuation. Prices are roughly in line with local incomes (−4% vs. this area's pre-2020 price-to-income norm).
• Prices. Home values are up 7.2% over the past year (U.S.: +1.2%), but still 11% below their 2022-23 peak.
• Supply. There are 38% more homes for sale than the 2017-19 norm and falling (−7% vs. a year ago), so buyers have more to choose from than before the pandemic.
• Negotiating. Buyer leverage is low (26/100; U.S.: 54): homes typically sell at or above asking (107.8% of list); 8% of listings had a price cut (U.S.: 26%).
• Affordability. A mortgage on the typical home takes 82% of the median household income (U.S.: 35%); it takes about $221k a year to keep the payment at 30% of gross pay. That includes about $1,584 a year for home insurance (U.S.: $1,790).
• Buy vs. rent. Buying costs about $1,458/mo more than renting a typical home (mortgage payment vs. typical rent).
• Disaster risk. FEMA expects about $227 a year in natural-disaster damage per $100k of building value (U.S.: $155), mostly from earthquakes.
• Outlook. Leaning up: likely −4% to +13% over the next 12 months (81% chance of a rise).

Next 12 months

Leaning up

Prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next year. Likely change: −3.5% to +12.8% (80% range; middle estimate +5.7%), chance of a rise 81%, of a 5%+ drop 7%.

HouseVane's model, refit every month on local market signals and national ones, trained only on data known at the time. How accurate it has been.

Other ZIP codes in San Francisco County, CA